The Congressional Budget Office and Joint Committee on Taxation now estimate that about 6 million uninsured people will pay a tax penalty under the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act because they are uninsured in 2016, according to a report released Sept. 19 by the CBO. That's about 2 million more people than they estimated in April 2010.
According to the report, about 85% of the increase stems from changes in CBO and JCT's baseline projections, including a higher unemployment rate and lower wages and salaries, while the rest results from the recent Supreme Court decision.
"As a result of that decision, CBO and JCT now anticipate that some states will not expand their Medicaid programs at all or will not expand coverage to the full extent authorized by the ACA," the report states. "Such state decisions are projected to increase the number of uninsured, a small percentage of whom will be subject to the penalty tax."
The ACA requires most legal residents to obtain health insurance or pay a penalty tax. According to the report, CBO and JCT now estimate that penalty collections will total about $7 billion in 2016 and average about $8 billion annually over the 2017-2022 period, about $3 billion more per year than their earlier estimate.